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UncertainMedium2026-05-29

BoE working paper questions state-contingent QE/QT effects

PrudentialOtherPrudentialCapital MarketsUnited KingdomConf: Low
Regulatory Event

Bank of England published a staff working paper examining whether the effects of quantitative easing and tightening are state contingent.

Analysis

The paper explores whether QE/QT impacts vary with market conditions, with implications for gilt liquidity, term premia, and bank reserve dynamics during ongoing BoE balance sheet reduction. Findings may influence future APF unwind pacing and market functioning expectations.

Relevance

QT pacing assumptions drive gilt market liquidity, collateral, and reserve scarcity risks for UK-active banks.

Required Action

Action Required

Incorporate state-contingent QT transmission assumptions into liquidity, gilt market, and rates risk scenarios.

Justification

Research signals BoE thinking on QT calibration, materially relevant to rates desks and treasury functions.

Control Commentary

Track BoE QE/QT research as input to gilt liquidity and reserve scarcity scenarios; reassess LCR and intraday liquidity buffers under accelerated QT paths.

Source

Bank of England staff working paper sets out research in progress on whether QE and QT effects are state contingent, aimed at encouraging comments and debate.

RH-2026-06-03-004