BoE staff paper proposes UK house price-at-risk framework

Bank of England staff published a working paper developing a house price-at-risk framework for the UK.

The staff working paper develops a quantitative framework to estimate downside risks to UK house prices under adverse conditions. It signals potential incorporation into macroprudential surveillance and could influence future stress test scenarios and mortgage risk expectations.

Foreshadows supervisory use of house price tail-risk metrics in mortgage credit risk and macroprudential assessment.

Methodological development likely to feed into FPC surveillance and mortgage stress calibration.

“Bank of England staff working paper developing a house price-at-risk framework for the UK, setting out research in progress.”